# Cedar Cycle — scenario model

Prepared fictional Kona example. Not a live AI run, customer story, verified demand, or approved financial/legal advice.

## Prepared inputs
Cedar Cycle is a fictional mobile bicycle-service concept. Unit price USD 100; variable cost USD 40/visit; monthly fixed cost USD 2,000; opening cash USD 10,000. Downside/base/upside volume: 30/40/50 visits per month. All figures are prepared assumptions. The simplified model excludes tax, debt, capex, payment timing, and changing capacity costs.

## Formulas
Revenue = monthly visits × price. Variable cost = monthly visits × variable cost per visit. Gross contribution = revenue − variable cost. Simplified operating cash = gross contribution − monthly fixed cost. Ending cash = prior cash + operating cash.

## Expected results
Downside monthly result: USD −200; month-12 cash: USD 7,600. Base monthly result: USD 400; month-12 cash: USD 14,800. Upside monthly result: USD 1,000; month-12 cash: USD 22,000.

## Review
These are constant-month scenarios. They are not tax, debt, capex, payment-timing, or probability-weighted forecasts. Do not read opening cash as an observed real account balance.

## How to revise
Edit the Inputs sheet, open the XLSX in compatible spreadsheet software, and inspect formula recalculation. Add supported lines explicitly if your business needs them.

## Review checklist
- Formula caches match independently calculated values.
- Inputs are editable and referenced by formulas.
- Opening/closing cash reconciles across months.
- Excluded cash items are visible.