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TAM SAM SOM Calculator Guide (2026): AI-Assisted Market Sizing Step by Step

A practical market sizing guide that combines top-down data, bottom-up assumptions, and capacity-constrained SOM logic.

Kona Business AI
Kona Team
Published 14 min read
TAM SAM SOM calculator dashboard with market sizing and sensitivity scenarios

A tam sam som calculator is useful when it combines top-down references with bottom-up execution limits. AI can accelerate the analysis, but your outputs are only credible when assumptions are explicit, dated, and tied to real go-to-market capacity. That is what investors and operators both need.

This guide gives founders and SMB teams a practical, source-backed market sizing process that links TAM, SAM, and SOM to planning and revenue decisions.

Updated February 2026. This guide is designed for practical planning execution and decision quality.

Who this is for and when to use it

The workflows below are designed for operators who want faster execution without sacrificing quality controls. Each block is built so a small team can run it quickly, audit assumptions, and adjust based on weekly signal.

Who this is for

  • Founders preparing market-size claims for decks and plans.
  • SMB leaders evaluating new segment opportunities.
  • Product and GTM teams aligning market scope with capacity.
  • Operators replacing vague estimates with defensible models.

When to use it

  • Current TAM claims are broad but not actionable.
  • Stakeholders challenge SAM/SOM realism.
  • You need to compare two potential market plays.
  • Forecast assumptions need stronger market evidence.

Step-by-step workflow

This workflow is intentionally linear: scope first, then build, then review, then operationalize. Keep each step focused on one clear decision before moving forward.

Step 1: Boundary and scope definition

Timebox: 50 min. Lock inclusions, exclusions, geography, and pricing baseline.

Step 2: Top-down TAM estimation

Timebox: 70 min. Use dated external data with transparent formula logic.

Step 3: Bottom-up SAM modeling

Timebox: 80 min. Estimate reachable demand from current product fit.

Step 4: Capacity-constrained SOM

Timebox: 75 min. Model obtainable share through execution throughput.

Step 5: Sensitivity stress testing

Timebox: 45 min. Identify assumptions driving most variance.

Step 6: Decision-ready briefing

Timebox: 40 min. Publish recommendations with confidence labels.

30-60-90 day execution cadence

A common reason playbooks fail is that teams stop at document creation. Treat this article as an operating rhythm, not a writing task. The first 30 days should focus on baseline quality and consistency, days 31-60 should focus on throughput and conversion quality, and days 61-90 should focus on compounding improvements through tighter signal loops.

Days 1-30: Baseline and alignment

  • Finalize one canonical version of the workflow and assign owners.
  • Run the process end to end at least once with real constraints.
  • Capture every major assumption and mark confidence levels.
  • Establish weekly review meeting with fixed agenda and outputs.

Days 31-60: Optimization and throughput

  • Reduce handoff friction between teams using shared definitions.
  • Retire low-value tasks and double down on high-signal actions.
  • Update templates based on what actually improves outcomes.
  • Report progress in a short weekly summary with owner accountability.

Days 61-90: Compounding and governance

  • Promote stable workflows into standard operating procedures.
  • Set monthly quality audits for assumptions and source freshness.
  • Document lessons learned and feed them into the next cycle.
  • Align leadership decisions to the metric and risk signals collected.

Internal resources and next steps

Each link below is selected to help you move from strategy to execution. The mix intentionally includes tool pages, adjacent guides, and a direct signup path to reduce friction between learning and action.

Build market sizing that supports real decisions

KonaBusiness.ai helps teams connect TAM, SAM, and SOM assumptions to execution and financial planning.

Open the TAM SAM SOM calculator

FAQ

Answers to keep your planning sprint moving

Quick explanations and definitions you can share with your team when reviewing the research.

Why do investors challenge TAM claims so often?
Many TAM claims are broad and not tied to product scope, geography, or pricing assumptions. Clear boundaries improve credibility.
How should I estimate SOM realistically?
Constrain SOM by execution capacity, channel throughput, and conversion assumptions rather than market potential alone.
Do I need both top-down and bottom-up methods?
Yes. Using both methods helps validate assumptions and avoid overstating reachable opportunity.
How often should market sizing be refreshed?
Refresh quarterly or when major product, pricing, or market conditions change.

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