The answer at a glance
Name the customer problem, separate observations from assumptions, choose the highest-impact uncertainty, and define a small test with a decision threshold before running it.
Use a checkable method
Define one customer segment, one recurring problem, and the current alternative. Broad statements such as “everyone needs this” do not identify a testable buyer.[1]
Inventory the evidence you already have. Record who or what was observed, the period, method, and limits. An interview opinion and a paid pilot are different kinds of evidence.
Rank assumptions by decision impact and uncertainty. Test the assumption that could most change whether you continue, rather than the easiest question to answer.
Choose a small interview, manual service, or offer test. Define the measurement and stop/revise/continue conditions in advance. Review what the result supports and what remains unknown.
Worked fictional example
Cedar Cycle is a prepared fictional employer-site bicycle-service concept. The critical assumption is that employees will book and pay for a bounded service day.
Exploratory conversations can identify access and scheduling constraints, but do not establish paid demand. A pilot should record bookings, cancellations, delivery time, cost, and repeat interest.
A decision gate could require acceptable service quality and positive contribution under actual pilot inputs. The operator must choose the threshold before results are known; this example does not invent one.
Limits to keep visible
A generated idea score, a completed canvas, or a plausible story is not evidence of viability. A small test may not generalize to another segment, geography, price, or season.
Kona Workspace supports saved business work and supported exports, subject to authentication, usage limits, configuration, and user review. Source links do not automatically certify every conclusion.[2]
Continue with your own evidence
Use the validation starter to organize the next test. Replace the fictional example with your own observations and keep untested assumptions visible.
- The business is labeled fictional.
- The pilot has a decision gate.
- Financial inputs match the forecast and deck packs.
Yours to use
Business plan sample pack — method notes
Prepared fictional notes to inspect and revise. Editable Office files are available from the related sample pack.
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# Cedar Cycle — business plan example
Prepared fictional Kona example. Not a live AI run, customer story, verified demand, or approved financial/legal advice.
## Business concept
Mobile bicycle servicing at employer sites, with employees paying for bounded service visits.
## Customer and problem hypothesis
Office managers may support a scheduled service day for employees who find workshop visits inconvenient. Neither paid demand nor repeat usage has been established.
## Business model and supplied assumptions
Cedar Cycle is a fictional mobile bicycle-service concept. Unit price USD 100; variable cost USD 40/visit; monthly fixed cost USD 2,000; opening cash USD 10,000. Downside/base/upside volume: 30/40/50 visits per month. All figures are prepared assumptions. The simplified model excludes tax, debt, capex, payment timing, and changing capacity costs.
## Route to validation
1. Interview office managers about access, scheduling, insurance, and employee communication.
2. Agree a small paid pilot with a defined scope and service-day rules.
3. Record bookings, cancellations, service time, variable cost, and repeat requests.
4. Review contribution and access constraints before committing to expansion.
## Evidence register
Customer observations: unavailable. Paid pilot results: unavailable. Supplier quotes: unavailable. The SBA planning guide is a method reference, not evidence of demand for this fictional business.
## Decision and review
Approve only a bounded pilot after verifying access, insurance, costs, and service responsibilities. Proposed owner: operator. Review date: choose before the pilot.
## Method reference
https://www.sba.gov/business-guide/plan-your-business/write-your-business-plan
## How to revise
Replace assumptions with your own facts. Keep unresolved items visible, update the accompanying model, and verify legal and financial conclusions before external use.
## Review checklist
- The business is labeled fictional.
- The pilot has a decision gate.
- Financial inputs match the forecast and deck packs.Sources
Sources and further reading
[1]
Planning and market research resourcesU.S. Small Business Administration
[2]
Kona capabilities and current limitsKona Business
Editorial method
This guide combines the linked sources with a worked example and a reusable template. Replace example inputs with your own evidence and check the result before making a business decision.
About Kona’s editorial standardsPut it into practice
Adapt this to your business in Workspace
Copy the brief below, open Workspace, and paste it with the inputs you want to use. Review the assumptions and calculations before relying on the output.
Use the validation starter to organize the next test. Replace the fictional example with your own observations and keep untested assumptions visible.
Keep working on the decision
Build a competitor matrix that helps a real decision
Compare the same customer job, record official sources and unknowns, and turn differences into testable positioning. Includes a prepared downloadable matrix.
Explain market-sizing assumptions so another person can check them
Define a market boundary, keep accounts and annual spend consistent, and test reachable shares. Includes a worked TAM/SAM/SOM calculation with clear limitations.