The answer at a glance
Separate drivers from formulas, compare cases using the same method, change an input, and verify that totals and cash balances recalculate. Keep exclusions and uncertain inputs visible.
Use a checkable method
Write the decision and financial scope. Choose consistent currency and periods, and specify which revenue, cost, tax, financing, and cash-timing items are included.[1]
Place editable drivers on an Inputs worksheet. Build formulas that reference those cells rather than repeating unexplained hard-coded results.
Change a small number of drivers across downside/base/upside cases. Do not invent probabilities or treat a target as a supported forecast.
Open the exported XLSX, change a driver, and inspect recalculation. Check ranges, subtotals, and the cash roll-forward independently before using the output.
Worked fictional example
Cedar Cycle’s prepared model uses USD 100 per visit, USD 40 variable cost, USD 2,000 monthly fixed cost, and USD 10,000 opening cash.
At 30/40/50 monthly visits, simplified monthly results are USD −200/400/1,000. Constant-month ending cash at month 12 is USD 7,600/14,800/22,000.
Tax, debt, capex, payment timing, and changing capacity costs are excluded. A real business must add material cash items explicitly.
Limits to keep visible
These are conditional calculations, not audited forecasts or probability estimates. Unsupported formulas must fail visibly rather than becoming reassuring zeros.
Kona Workspace supports saved business work and supported exports, subject to authentication, usage limits, configuration, and user review. Source links do not automatically certify every conclusion.[2]
Continue with your own evidence
Download the forecast pack, inspect Inputs and scenario worksheets, then use the scenario-analysis starter with your own drivers and decision threshold.
- Formula caches match independently calculated values.
- Inputs are editable and referenced by formulas.
- Opening/closing cash reconciles across months.
- Excluded cash items are visible.
Yours to use
Forecast and scenarios sample pack — method notes
Prepared fictional notes to inspect and revise. Editable Office files are available from the related sample pack.
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# Cedar Cycle — scenario model
Prepared fictional Kona example. Not a live AI run, customer story, verified demand, or approved financial/legal advice.
## Prepared inputs
Cedar Cycle is a fictional mobile bicycle-service concept. Unit price USD 100; variable cost USD 40/visit; monthly fixed cost USD 2,000; opening cash USD 10,000. Downside/base/upside volume: 30/40/50 visits per month. All figures are prepared assumptions. The simplified model excludes tax, debt, capex, payment timing, and changing capacity costs.
## Formulas
Revenue = monthly visits × price. Variable cost = monthly visits × variable cost per visit. Gross contribution = revenue − variable cost. Simplified operating cash = gross contribution − monthly fixed cost. Ending cash = prior cash + operating cash.
## Expected results
Downside monthly result: USD −200; month-12 cash: USD 7,600. Base monthly result: USD 400; month-12 cash: USD 14,800. Upside monthly result: USD 1,000; month-12 cash: USD 22,000.
## Review
These are constant-month scenarios. They are not tax, debt, capex, payment-timing, or probability-weighted forecasts. Do not read opening cash as an observed real account balance.
## How to revise
Edit the Inputs sheet, open the XLSX in compatible spreadsheet software, and inspect formula recalculation. Add supported lines explicitly if your business needs them.
## Review checklist
- Formula caches match independently calculated values.
- Inputs are editable and referenced by formulas.
- Opening/closing cash reconciles across months.
- Excluded cash items are visible.Sources
Sources and further reading
[1]
Plan your businessU.S. Small Business Administration
[2]
Kona capabilities and current limitsKona Business
Editorial method
This guide combines the linked sources with a worked example and a reusable template. Replace example inputs with your own evidence and check the result before making a business decision.
About Kona’s editorial standardsPut it into practice
Adapt this to your business in Workspace
Copy the brief below, open Workspace, and paste it with the inputs you want to use. Review the assumptions and calculations before relying on the output.
Download the forecast pack, inspect Inputs and scenario worksheets, then use the scenario-analysis starter with your own drivers and decision threshold.
Keep working on the decision
Validate a business idea with evidence, not a polished plan
Turn a customer hypothesis into a bounded test. Use a worked service-business example, an evidence table, and decision gates before committing resources.
Build a competitor matrix that helps a real decision
Compare the same customer job, record official sources and unknowns, and turn differences into testable positioning. Includes a prepared downloadable matrix.